Green Pools and Mosquito Eating Fish

Once in a while, the software vendor who provides our local area MLS uses a popup window to provide Relators and others using the MLS software with what they think is critical information. The info is rarely interesting but usually useful. Today it was both.

It’s probably no surprise that green pools are becoming a hazard around the Valley. The number of foreclosures, lender-owned, and otherwise uncared for vacant homes with icky pools is growing. Green pools are breeding grounds for mosquitos, which are carriers of the West Nile Virus.

Maricopa County Vector Conrol (I’d have thought it was Pest Control or even Animal Control, but it seems not) has a hotline for information. Plus they have mosquito eating fish to stock your neighborhood green pool with. From the press release:

“Drain the pools or use mosquito eating fish at foreclosed homes and help Maricopa County “Fight the Bite”. Standing water attracts mosquitoes, and non-operational decorative ponds and “green pools” can dangerously become potential mosquito breeding grounds. This year, Maricopa County recorded it’s first confirmed case of West Nile Virus in a human in March. That was the first identified case in the nation for 2008. Contact the Maricopa County Vector Control office to pick up Gambusia fish, a door hanger and fence sign stating the pool has been treated with mosquito eating fish. Then report the treated pool to the County. For assistance or more information on West Nile Virus, please contact Vector Control at 602-506-0701 or visit Maricopa County’s West Nile Virus website.”

However, see also this website, which claims that Gambusia fish are a nuisance in their own right. Me? I’m worried about fishies “breathing” chlorinated water. Hope Vector Control has thought of that. By the way, I’m also concerned about the County’s press release writer. I edited the paragraph for run-on sentences, mis-used commas, and noun-verb disagreement before posting it. But then again, I’m weird like that.

Phoenix Real Estate Market Is Improving

The National Association of Realtors unveiled a press release today, which said: “A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.”

The NAR forecast went on to say that the recovery hinges in large part on mortgage affordability. NAR President Chuck Gaylord said “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts… In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit,,, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements.”

It’s not very often that I agree with the NAR, but here I do. As I posted yesterday, the part of the metro Phoenix market that I cover is showing definite signs of improvement. We’ve still got a long way to go, perhaps as much as another 6 to 10 months before things are “normal” again. But we’ve made a beginning. Pending sales are up.  Overall sales are increasing.  Prices aren’t dipping as hard as they had been. Of course, all of these links are to bloggers I know and love, each giving their own personal touch to the fabulous news that the metro Phoenix real estate market is improving!

Phoenix Real Estate Market Improving

The metro Phoenix real estate market continues to show signs of improvement. While it’s true that inventory of homes for sale remains high (54,000+), the number of sales each month continues to increase. We’re now sitting on just under 11 months of inventory. What that means is that if no one else listed their home for sale, and sales continued at the current pace, it would take us 11 months to sell every home for sale. Typically, a balanced market is about 6 months’ supply.

What I found most interesting is what happened in mid-April of this year. We started 2008 with 18 months of inventory. By mid-April we’d whittled that down to only 11 months supply. Whee! We knocked off 6 months of supply in just over 3 months.  See the chart below for more information, or feel free to contact me to discuss your unique buying & selling needs.

For Sale at the Pointe Tapatio

Homes and patio homes currently for sale at the Pointe Tapatio. See one that looks interesting to you? Call or email me for more information.

 

Sales Price History at the Pointe Tapatio

This chart shows the history of sold prices at the Pointe Tapatio for 1600-1700 square foot homes, from 2000 to 2008. Almost all are 3 bedroom, 2 bath, but a few have only 2 bedrooms.

Click to enlarge, but in the thumbnail size it’s easier to see the general trendline, which is UP. While we’re in the middle of the current painful market correction, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that home prices have increased over time.

Another interesting thing the chart shows is that there’s a lot more fluctuation in sales prices in the period 2005 to 2008 than there was in 2001 to 2003. There’s more ’swing’ in the highs and lows. I think this reflects the general confusion in the marketplace today. Sellers and their Realtors spend a great deal of time and energy choosing the “right” list price. Buyers and their Realtors aren’t sure how much to offer, often because there are so few comps to check.  There’s just a ton of uncertainty in the marketplace today about what a home is really worth.

There’s a lot of noise in the media marketplace today about home values. Too many media outlets are shouting “The sky is falling!” To which I say, “Um, not so much here in North Phoenix.” Our prices are wobbling around a little bit, but the sky is definitely not falling at the Pointe Tapatio.

The sky here is as beautiful as it’s always been, filled with resort like lush palms and stunning mountain views.

Mortgage Lender Sued, Pocketed $44 Million

From Inman News, here’s an excerpt from an article they ran today about a mortgage lender getting sued for shenanigans.

Leib Pinter, 64, is accused of fraud in connection with the alleged theft of $44 million in proceeds from refinance loans funded by Fannie Mae.

According to an indictment filed by the United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, Pinter’s company Olympia Mortgage Corp originated and serviced mortgage loans owned by Fannie Mae. Some of those loans were refinanced through Olympia, with Fannie Mae wiring money to an Olympia account.

Instead of paying off the underlying mortgage loan by remitting the outstanding balance to Fannie Mae, Pinter is accused of pocketing the proceeds. By the time the scheme was discovered, Fannie Mae held nearly $44 million in unpaid, but refinanced, mortgage loans from Olympia, prosecutors said.

Yikes! Maybe in addition to a terrorist watch list, we need a lender fraud watchlist. It might help solve the problem we seem to be having, where most folks want to help homeowners who got duped into a loan they couldn’t afford, but nobody wants to help guys like Pinter and homeowners who knowingly took out a mortgage they couldn’t afford.

Today’s Mortgage Rates

Courtesy of Andrew Little, of the Little Team at Countrywide (yes, they’re still around, and Andrew is a fantastic loan officer)…. today’s mortgage rates. Like any published rates, these are the best rates available, and assume excellent credit and low amounts of other debt. I like Andrew’s mortgage rates because his company projects what they think the rates will be in 1 week and in 1 month. if you’re loan shopping and wondering when to lock your rate, this info will be handy. (Click the pic to enlarge).

You can reach Andrew Little of Countrywide at

Andrew Little
Sales Manager
The Little Team
Countrywide Bank, FSB

480-384-4012 Office 866-669-7830 Fax

Mortgage Terms Defined

I love my local lenders (click the pic above to enlarge) but am also aware that many buyers want to get some info & explanations without actually contacting anyone, yet.  There’s a tremendous fear of being “pushed” by a salesperson into something the buyer isn’t ready for. 

So for all you folks who want to browse without talking to a lender yet, see this awesome glossary of mortgage terms compiled by Jack M. Guttentag. Jack is Professor of Finance Emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and founder of GHR Systems, Inc., a mortgage technology company. He contributes to InmanNews.com where I get my daily fix of real estate news. You can see excerpts of Inman headlines on my main website, the NorthPhoenixAgent.com.

Related Entries:

• PMI Defined
• What’s an 80/20 Loan?
• How Much Earnest Money is Enough?

UK Bank Says Credit Crisis Overstated

The UK Bank released a statement today that says the worldwide credit crisis is being overstated, and the financial market will gain strength in coming months as investors realize the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis wasn’t as bad as we all thought it was.

I’m no expert on the worldwide financial markets, but being in sales does give you the chance to hone your people watching skills. The UK Bank’s statement seems logical. Pendulums swing, and then swing back, before settling into the new normal.

Overreaction in the residential mortgage market was bound to happen, given the easy lending standards that prevailed over the past couple five or six years. For a while there you could get a mortgage as long as you could fog a mirror. Lenders are waaaay more restrictive these days. That’s not to say you can’t get a mortgage. You can. Just be prepared to provide documentation in the form of tax returns, pay stubs, bank account statements and the like. If your income comes from anything other than W-2 wages, you could have a difficult time getting a home loan right now.

But I think the UK Bank is right, if only because they’re describing a typical human reaction: overreaction, followed by settling down.

April Month End Statistics

The numbers continue improving a little bit each month. Sales are increasing and we’re back to nearly 5,000 sales a month. That’s a nice, healthy, “normal” pace for home sales. Inventory of homes for sale is holding steady at 56,000. The number of homes pending under contract jumped again to 8.74% (from 8.20% about 3 weeks ago and a dismal 6.06% at the beginning of this year). We’ve got an 11.44 month supply of homes for sale, which is lower than its been since I began tracking these stats last October. The number “should” be 6 to be considered normal, but we’re digging out of a pretty deep hole, so it’ll take some more time.

(Months supply means if no one else listed their home for sale, and we continued selling homes at the current pace, it would take 11 and one-half months to sell all the homes currently on the market)

Combined with anecdotal evidence from just about every Realtor and title officer I know, who all say that they’re busier than they were during the height of the boom, and I think this is encouraging news. Jonathan Dalton sports some awesome numbers over at his website, Daltons AZ Homes that show lots of our market activity is coming from people buying lender-owned and short sale homes. I’m just happy to see a continued decrease in the ‘months supply’ number.