Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia, courtesy of StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

This week’s chart is a mess of red and green all over, not following any discernable trend. Kinda like the Valley’s real estate market now. Or maybe the stats chart is feeling Christmasy.

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

Sunday Stats (on Monday)

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

I’ve added a new field this week, the Median Sold Price. This is the number at which half the sold home prices are higher than the stated median, and half the sold home prices are lower than the stated median.

To find the median, list all the sold prices in row from smallest to biggest. The number that’s exactly in the middle of the line is the median.

Median is much less volatile than average, and so more useful when comparing an already volatile housing market.

Think of it this way (big hat tip to Nobel prize winner and Princeton economist, Paul Krugman for this): if there are 50 people in your neighborhood bar and Bill Gates walks in, the average income of the people in the bar just skyrocketed. But the median income won’t have moved so much, because old Bill just gets added to the end of the line and counted as 1 in the string.

In any case, we’re still awash in red ink. Red represents a field that’s moved in a negative direction since last week. Negatives in our current market are: more inventory for sale, fewer homes going pending, fewer homes selling in the past 30 days, and/or a larger number for months of inventory.

I’m assuming we all want the housing market to get back to “normal” when I color code these charts. Normal is about 6 months of inventory on the market. We’re at 14. Not so healthy. Let’s see what next week brings.

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

It’s encouraging to see a lot of green in the Pending numbers this week. I think of Pending’s as leading indicators.

On the other hand, this is the 3rd week in a row that the overall average months of inventory number has increased. Not good. It’s also the 3rd week of 4 in which I had to exclude ZIP code 85012 from the totals calculations, because the numbers there are so very, very bad.

Buyers, I’ll say it again: 85012 is an incredibly good ZIP code in which to go bargain hunting. Sellers there should be about ready to give away the farm by now. And once the Light Rail starts running in December, things should steadily improve there.

There are some great hi-rise condos in this ZIP which offer a good potential for cash flow, if purchased as investments and you get a tenant.  I have a ready-made list of downtown Phoenix hi-rises for sale – email or call me if you’d like to receive the list, and updates whenever they hit the MLS.

Email me to subscribe to this blog and get regular updates as they’re posted – Heather@NorthPhoenixAgent.com

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

Well, this is the 2nd week in a row that we’ve moved in a ‘bad’ direction. As a recap, the “goal” if there is one in a real estate market, is balance. Most experts, forecasters and Realtors use 6 months’ inventory as a guideline for a balanced market.

)Months of inventory is a measure of how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale, if no more homes were listed for sale and if sales continued at the same pace. If there are 30,000 homes for sale and 5,000 sold in the past 30 days, you’re at 6 months’ inventory because 30,000 divided by 5,000 equals 6.)

We’re sitting at 12.63 months of inventory, double what’s “normal.”

ZIP code 85012 has been truly hammered by a combination of factors: Light Rail construction, generally aging homes, the overall bad real estate market and economy. The months of inventory number in this ZIP is so wildly out of line with the rest of the territory included in the chart that I’ve excluded it from the “average” numbers at the bottom of the chart.

Excluded from the average calculation they may be, but properties in this ZIP code represent an incredible buying opportunity. Sellers here are likely to be increasingly anxious to actually sell, prices have dropped dramatically in many areas and rents – while wobbling a bit – are often enough to make an investment property cash flow immediately.

Thinking about jumping into real estate investment? Call or email me. Lending guidelines are changing daily, and I’ll be happy to give you the up to date information so you can make an informed buying decision.

Want to receive the Sunday Stats by email? Call or email me and I’ll put you on the list.

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

Not much going on this week compared to the past 2 or 3 weeks. We’re in a holding pattern, which isn’t surprising given the current economic news. The future of the American economy is as clear as mud, and when consumers see mud they bury their heads in it and hope for something that looks and smells better in the future.

The one bright spot for sellers continues to be ZIP 85024. While 85027 has slowed a from it’s previous quick sales pace, it’s still a good place to be a seller. Inventory is selling, and quickly. Sellers don’t have to agree to every buyer demand. Of course, most of the properties sold here in the past few months have been lender owned, or at least priced at the low lender owned fire sale prices. A competitive price rules the day in these ZIPs. Listing priced even a smidge above the last sold comp will be sporting their sold signs till next holiday season.

The nice news is that ZIPs 85024 and 85027 are also good places to be buyers! There are lots of little condos and patio homes in these ZIPs that can be bought up for under $125,000 or so, fixed a bit (paint, carpet, good cleaning, minor repairs) and then rented for an immediate cash flow!

Interested in jumping into the real estate investing pond? These ZIPs are good for that. Most investor loans these days require at least 10% down, sometimes more like 20% or 30%. But for folks with decent credit, a bit of money put by, and an adventurous spirit can make a go of it.  I forget who said it, but it’s true that you can make money buying real estate when there’s blood in the streets. The Motley Fool doesn’t have an investment strategy called “Contrarian” for no good reason:

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy
and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
– Warren Buffett

Of all the Oracle of Omaha’s orations, this one holds a special place in Foolish investors’ hearts. When looking to bag a bargain, a panicked sell-off by jittery investors offers you a great chance to snap up stocks on the cheap.

Substitute “real estate” for “stocks” in the above quote from the Fool’s website, and you’ve got a recipe for getting rich slowly with real estate investments that pay you over the years.

The average sold price over the past 30 days in ZIPs 85024 and 85027, respectively, are $158,000 and $111,000. Want to drive an even harder bargain? Properties in ZIP 85012 have been selling like molasses in Alaska for months. With absorption rates in the triple digits, buyers can call all the shots, and with the average sold price in the past 30 days at a mere $84,933, it’s not even painful to come up with the down money.

Intrigued? Call or email me.

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series, and for historical perspective.

Busy, busy, busy. Our Canadian friends continue buying bargain-priced Valley real estate. I have time only to post the stats, but not for a thoughtful commentary. Here’s my un-thoughtful commentary for the week: it’s still VERY hard to find a Phoenix home, no more than 5 years old in a nice neighborhood, with a pool, at least 1500 square feet, 3 beds and 2 baths for under $200,000.  Bubble bloggers and doomsayers take note!

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange.

Click here for the entire Sunday Stats series

Sunday Stats (again on Monday)

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange

Again with the Sunday entry posted on Monday! Sorry, pressed for time.

Click here for the entire Sunday Stats series

Sunday Stats

Sunday Stats are a day late this week. Sorry ’bout that. I was under the weather.

Lots of red this week.

I looked back one month (below) and found that our numbers have actually gotten worse in that time interval. Interesting. Only time will tell if this week’s wash of red is a fluke or a trend.

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This is the chart approximately 1 month ago.

This chart tracks the entire MLS (not specific ZIPs like the two charts above) and goes back to October 2007. This is “the big picture”, which shows that while our overall inventory of homes for sale hasn’t dropped significantly, we’re selling inventory at a steadily increasing rate.

Most experts and forecasters agree that a 6 month inventory supply is about average. That means that if no additional homes were listed for sale, and home sales continued at the same pace, it would take 6 months to sell every single home for sale.

As you can see from The Big Picture chart, we’ve spent the last quarter of 2007 and all of 2008 to date approaching that magic number. How much longer will it take? That’s anyone’s guess, and lots of folks have guesses they’re tossing into the ring. My take? There are a lot more foreclosure properties yet to hit the market. With many 3/1 ARM loans adjusting in summer 2008, I expect the largest bump of foreclosure properties is yet to come. We’ll probably continue selling that excess inventory, because the investor class is back in the marketplace. (Anecdotally – I’ve got about a half dozen buyers I’m working with right now., some want to buy now and some want to buy “in the next few months.” Only 1 is not an investor.)

My best guess (and it IS just a guess, nobody can predict the future) is that we’ll stall at 9 months inventory for the rest of this year, and things will break loose in a noticeable way next spring after the presidential election and Inaguration.

Sunday Stats

This week’s edition of the Sunday Stats shows continuing strength in ZIP 85027. Homes are selling like hotcakes out there!

Fifty-six sales in the past 30 days brings the total inventory on market to just 4.93 months’ worth. That’s a pretty solid seller’s market. Yes, you read that right – seller’s market, not buyer’s market.

Of course, financial distress sales are driving the market in 85027. A full 40% of the closed sales in the past 30 days were financial distress sales (meaning pre-foreclosure, foreclosure, short sales and/or lender owned properties).

Haven’t done a deal in the ZIP myself lately, but I suspect that multiple offers and bidding wars are becoming common in this ZIP. I did a little more digging into the sales in this ZIP and found that, by and large, the financial distress properties are selling quicker (average 88 days on market) than standard sales (110 days on market). No surprise since distress properties are typically priced at the low end of the value spectrum, and often are priced outright below market value.

(Click here for the entire series of Sunday Stats)

Hope these stats are useful to someone reading! If you don’t see a ZIP you’d like to track, email me.

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange

Click here to see last week’s stats or click here to see the entire Sunday Stats series.

Here’s this week’s numbers.

ZIP 85027 continues to be a hot spot for sellers!

Sellers in ZIP 85027 are actually a mini-pocket of “seller’s market” in a sea of bad news for sellers throughout the North Phoenix region.

That’s largely because much of the inventory of properties for sale in this ZIP code are some sort of distress sale – pre-foreclosure, foreclosure, short sale or outright lender-owned properties.  One-third of the homes for sale in 85027 ZIP are financial distress sales, and 50% of the pending and homes sold in this ZIP in the past 30 days were financial distress situations. (All stats from the Arizona Regional MLS).

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Want to receive these updates by email? Send me an email with “Sunday Stats” in the subject line. No email spam and I do not sell, rent, share or trade your email address to anyone. Ever.

The fine print: I include all property types (homes, patio homes, townhouses, and condos) and I go back in time 30 days).

Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange

Click here to link back to last week’s stats or click here to see the entire series.

This week’s chart is below. As always, red indicates the value moved in the ‘wrong’ direction (away from a balanced market), while green means the value moved towards a balanced market.

It’s interesting to note that most of the red in the “Months of Inventory” column is in the ZIPs that lay closest to the central Phoenix business corridors, while most of the green in this column is in the outlying ZIPs farther from center city.

I’ve always felt that central Phoenix is due for a renaissance as homeowners realize that a large, new McMansion far from the city isn’t such a great deal if you spend several hours a day in the car commuting to work in the downtown corridors.

I’ve even heard some homeowners state this idea out loud: “Sure my house is 40 years old and it’s got a few issues like any old house would, but I’m only 10 or 15 minutes from work, so that tradeoff works for me. More time with my family trumps a bigger house.”

This week’s chart doesn’t support that theory at all. Of course, looking at weekly stats kind of gives one a “can’t view the forest for the trees” perspective, so I’ll hang on to my theory for now and just keep watching the numbers.

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Sunday Stats

photo credit to MiamiAmia,  via StockExchange

Click here to link back to last week’s stats

Here’s this week’s numbers. Overall, we inched a minute amount in the right direction – less total months of inventory on the market.

As always, a red means the number moved in a negative direction over last week, while green means positive movement towards a balanced market.

Want to receive these updates by email? Send me an email with “Sunday Stats” in the subject line. No email spam and I do not sell, rent, share or trade your email address to anyone. Ever.

The fine print: I include all property types (homes, patio homes, townhouses, and condos) and I go back to one day later in the prior month (i.e. today I went back to Jul 11).