North Phoenix Agent Blog

The UK Bank released a statement today that says the worldwide credit crisis is being overstated, and the financial market will gain strength in coming months as investors realize the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis wasn’t as bad as we all thought it was.

I’m no expert on the worldwide financial markets, but being in sales does give you the chance to hone your people watching skills. The UK Bank’s statement seems logical. Pendulums swing, and then swing back, before settling into the new normal.

Overreaction in the residential mortgage market was bound to happen, given the easy lending standards that prevailed over the past couple five or six years. For a while there you could get a mortgage as long as you could fog a mirror. Lenders are waaaay more restrictive these days. That’s not to say you can’t get a mortgage. You can. Just be prepared to provide documentation in the form of tax returns, pay stubs, bank account statements and the like. If your income comes from anything other than W-2 wages, you could have a difficult time getting a home loan right now.

But I think the UK Bank is right, if only because they’re describing a typical human reaction: overreaction, followed by settling down.

From Inman News, I got a eblast news update that gave me a little more insight into why lenders maybe aren’t so eager to modify loan terms for homeowners facing the possibility of foreclosure.

“On mortgages carrying mortgage insurance that go to foreclosure, investors are protected up to the maximum coverage of the policy, which is usually enough to cover all or most of the loss. This discourages modifications. Why do a modification for $15,000 if the $40,000 foreclosure cost is going to be paid by the mortgage insurer?”  So says Jack Guttentag, professor emeritus of finance at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. (I found Jack’s comments at Inman.com and I think the site requires a free registration to view the article)

Unlike my last post proposing a “fix” for the foreclosure mess, I’ve got no advice or ideas on this one. I assume it’s the investors who bought the loans from the original lender who are getting payouts from the insurance funds. The bulk of today’s foreclosures are loans carrying private mortgage insurance, since many of them were exotic 80/20 and 80/15/5 loans which left homeowners with little or no equity in the property. Since the news is filled with stories of big banks announcing big losses due to their involvement in the mortgage meltdown, I guess it’s just the banks and the homeowners who are paying the price. Investors (apparently) have their losses covered by insurance.

A few days late with the update, but it seems that February 28, 2008 brought another, final ruling from District Court that AmeriDream is OK to continue funding dreams by providing buyers with a down payment for the purchase of a home. Yay!

Related Posts: 
How AmeriDream Works

HUD Smacked Down By District Judge

AmeriDream Continues Funding Dreams

“Subprime” Defined

Are you a first time home buyer shopping in Arizona? If so, you’d better double time your shopping trip. Starting next month it’s going to get more expensive to buy a home in Arizona.  Why?  The rules for PMI are changing.

PMI is Private Mortgage Insurance. It’s required on any home loan made without at least 20% down payment. It protects the lender against the risk that you, the less-than-20%-down buyer, will default on your loan.  Your monthly mortgage payment is higher, but that increase is way less painful than saving 20% which could take years and years for most of us.

Starting in March 2008, the nation’s 2 biggest PMI issuers are restricting who gets a PMI policy. Industry leader MGIC Investment Corp’s limit is a minimum of 5% cash down; it’s 3% for competitor PMI Group. The change applies in areas the companies consider “restricted markets”.  These markets include the entire states of Arizona, Florida, and Nevada, as well as the metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C., Detroit, Chicago, Boston and Atlanta.

This change will hit first timer buyers hard, since they’re rarely rolling around in spare cash.  Less than 3% to 5% cash down = no PMI policy = no home loan = no new home smell in your future.  What’s a cash-strapped buyer to do?

1. Hurry. If you’re buying to live in it and plan to stay 5+ years, don’t worry about whether home prices will fall a little bit more in the rest of 2008 and 2009. There are 55,000 Valley homes to choose from, Sellers are being exceptionally accommodating, and interest rates remain relatively low. It’s a buyer’s market like we haven’t seen in decades. Bold buyers can make a killing, long-term.
2. Hope that your lender can get you a PMI policy from somebody other than the 2 big boys in the game, MGIC & PMI Group.
3. Use a Down Payment Assistance program like AmeriDream and Nehemiah Corp. But note that these have time limits too. They won’t be around forever.
4. Calculate how long it would take you to save 20% on your expected home purchase. Then evaluate whether buying now and risking a little price deflation in 2008/09 is better or worse than waiting X years till you have 20% down saved. For most buyers, buying sooner makes more sense than waiting & saving.
5. As long as you’re calculating your savings rate in #4 above, be realistic. On paper I can save tens of thousands per year. In reality, my savings account needs a few human growth hormone injections to beef it up. There’s always a movie to see, a new gadget to buy, or a round of drinks to spring for. Most of us don’t save as much as we think.
6. Don’t forget that regular mortgage interest is tax deductible, and so are PMI payments. You’ll have a fat deduction on your federal income tax statement that might offset some of the temporary pain of budgeting to pay a mortgage every month.

 New PMI policies are just another brick in the wall of reasons to buy an Arizona home now if you’ve been fence sitting for a while.